Announced datacenter buildouts across the four largest US markets imply new load measured in gigawatts, on schedules measured in quarters. Interconnection queues in the same markets are measured in years, with a median study-to-energisation time that has been lengthening, not shortening.
The gap is being closed three ways: behind-the-meter generation, acquiring sites with existing interconnection rights, and paying to jump the queue via network upgrade cost allocation. All three are expensive. The third is politically radioactive because the cost lands on ratepayers.
You cannot procure a transformer with a term sheet.
The binding constraint is not chips and has not been for some time. It is high-voltage transformers, switchgear, and the linemen qualified to commission them, none of which respond to capital on a two-year horizon.
Expect the announced timelines to slip quietly and the capex to be reported on schedule anyway, because one of those numbers is audited and the other is a press release.
